Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Why does Trending Exist?

Why are price movements characterized by persistence of trending, sometimes thought of as "momentum" by traders?

The answer is fairly simple. As price rises, Market Makers crowd the DOM tiers at the BID price, thus "masking" the ability for a trader to get the BID price.

So, if the trader wants to enter the market (assuming one tick between BID and ASK), then he must "pay up" and hit the ASK with his limit BUY order or, more frequently, enter a MARKET order to BUY which, of course, gives him the worst control over price.

The Market Maker wants to sell to You, the Buyer, at the worst (highest possible) price, thus making his volume weighted average selling cost against You, as High as possible, so that his price break even point is as high as possible.

By continuing the upward trend, it's a bit like getting on a moving Bus. The Bus Conductor (well, there used to be conductors) is happy to let you onboard, but you must pay the fare, plus give him a Tip to allow you to jump onboard while the Bus is already moving. The Conductor has to make it worth his while to break the rules and let you on board an already moving bus, of course !!

So it is with Markets. If you "pay up", pay the "retail" price, then you can get on board. MM's are very happy to Sell to you at a price THEY determine, which is always the worst price they can give You at that instant in time.

The persistence of Trending both tempts us to enter, hoping the trend will continue far enough for us to profit, and also it serves to line the pockets of the Market Makers who force YOU to pay "top dollar", the worst price, to enter the trending market.

And then, what's even worse -- Oh, Horror! -- as soon as you've entered, the Trend starts to reverse and you can't make any money.

Such is the life of a trader. There are solutions to handling this ubiquitous situation, and FutureScalper offers many of these solutions.

Trading is Never easy !! How many times have I said that?

Good Trading!

Monday, October 5, 2009

Untradable Conditions

What are "untradable" conditions? Because we'd rather not "guess", we are relying upon various technical indicators and anticipating movement.

Clearly, there may be times when no movement is forthcoming. The price "grinds" around and never really moves anywhere in the short term.

During these conditions, indicators will suggest movement one way or the other, but that movement may not be forthcoming as there's just no "energy" in the market.

What can you do? Well, there are often "micro-channels" during these conditions. Their identification requires continually marking up candidate support and resistance levels from Price Micro Detail Charts or other charts.

We know that prices move in channels, and that support and resistance are proven to be major factors in price movements.

So, your strategy would include using more contracts, in order to make smaller movements more profitable. Always be careful not to get in trouble and allow positions to get too far out of control. By adding contracts incrementally, and removing them in the same way, we can modulate our risk, take partial profits when available and trade these "untradable" markets.

Or, perhaps better yet, take a break and return when there's more energy in the markets !!

Good Scalping !

Friday, July 24, 2009

Surviving against Market Makers

It's about time to say some more about Scalping, and how Market Makers (MM's) trade against the rest of the market.

Both smaller Buyers and Sellers, and even the very small ones, like ourselves (!) are at a distinct disadvantage when trading against MM's.

They have "deep pockets" and are dominating the DOM quotes. So what hope do we have of trading against these powerful MM's?

Part of the answer is NOT to trade against MM's. When there is a 2 tick Bid/Ask spread in a market, the MM's are deliberately keeping it wide. After all, we retail Buyers need to buy the ASK price, and sell to the BID price, and MM's are only to happy to take the opposite side of our trades.

But, MM's will NEVER give you a good price. So what's a Trader to do?

Smaller players will occasionally "step into" the open spread. These are the contracts you want to trade with. These small players make mistakes, but MM's never make mistakes.

Consider a market trading BID 98 and ASK 100. Nobody's at 99. You're a Buyer, wanting to get Long, but at a decent price. You don't want to pay 100. FutureScalper Virtual Limit Orders can wait until a small player offers a contract or two at 99 for sale. IF that lower ASK price is not joined immediately by the MM's, then FutureScalper will quickly hit that small players's OFFER and take the contract.

Why does this work? If the market were going down, then MM's would be willing to join the ASK (OFFER) at 99. If the MM's willingly join the smaller player, then it is because the market is going down, and they want the action. The fact that MM's do not join a seller at 99 is some evidence that the market is moving up.

If the market is moving up, then you want to buy that contract off the poor fellow who's just selling it. He will lose, and you may win.

One thing you should never do after hours is to place a limit order inside the Bid/Ask. Now, it's not the end of the world, and it can place you in a good position to get a price, but is has some serious downsides:

1) Everybody sees that you're inside. This can affect the market's behavior in low volume situations. MM's may join you. And actually this can give you some information, whether or not they join you !!! But, in general it's not good.

2) You have to wait, like the MM's for someone to hit your bid or offer, and this exposes you longer than necessary to get a fill. MM's have all the patience in the world, but you may not, and you'd rather get a fill quickly than to sit and wait for one, and tell the world what you're doing.

So, in general, we want to wait until a smaller player makes a bid or offer we're interested in, so long as the Bid/Ask spread is not too wide, and then hit that with a preloaded Virtual Limit Order, which evaluates whether MM's are interested in that price or not.

GOOD SCALPING !!

Friday, June 26, 2009

FutureScalper on Transact

Until now, FutureScalper has been available only for Interactive Brokers clients. RSN (Real Soon Now, as they say) FutureScalper for Transact(tm) will give scalpers many brokerage choices on the extremely high performance Transact data network service.

Many brokerages, including Transact, Infinity, Apex and a host of others offer the TransactAT(tm)* platform and Transact's data feed as one of several options. This platform uses a DOM Ladder style for order entry, which is suited for most traders.

FutureScalper uses highly specialized Analysis and Order Entry techniques, which only a very few scalpers should consider. FutureScalper is by no means a replacement for TransactAT as the reference platform. Both platforms will generally be used side-by-side, with TransactAT as the reference for positions at the brokerage.

Read more at http://FutureScalper.com/transact

FutureScalper calculates the COT (Commitment of Traders) in real-time in order to determine Market Makers' aggregate position against the rest of the market.

Since Transact has a full Time and Sales feed, the accuracy of COT is enhanced, with no trades missed in the T&S feed. Thus, "tape reading" is far better as a predictor of short term price movement.

DOM is 5-wide, which is more or less the same; however, soon a 10-wide DOM will become available for exchanges which publish that information. FutureScalper's DOM analysis will thus be able to "look ahead" at MM's size patterns further away from the current market as a predictor.

Order Entry will also be much faster. Exact timings are dependent upon various system settings, but very high performance and reliability are expected.

An Analysis and Training version is already available.

If you are interested in FutureScalper on Transact, email FutureScalper@gmail.com with the subject line "FutureScalper on Transact".

So, if you are determined to scalp, which is a dangerous game; consider whether FutureScalper could improve your bottom line. The learning curve is high, and you should demonstrate experience in scalping in order to qualify.

Good Scalping !

* (The Yes network, YesTrader, TransactAT(tm) are possible trademarks or service marks of Transact Futures http://TransactFutures.com and affiliates.)

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Price Adversity -- Trade with Trend

Small traders cannot tolerate a losing position, and may be forced to liquidate by stopping out or closing "gracefully". Of course, losing is always more devastating than winning is rewarding. The odds are stacked against you, as a small trader, because we have to pay the spread and the commission.

Price adversity is when your position is currently open, but losing. The Market Maker (MM) can tolerate a huge price adversity in positions for several reasons: 1) huge resources, 2) operating on averages and 3) continuous profits across the spread which offset position losses. Without going into all of this, just let me say that YOU CANNOT tolerate significant losses. That's stating the obvious.

There are two approaches to trading, given the old adage that "The Trend is your Friend". You can go 1) with the trend, or anticipate a change in trend and enter 2) against the trend (counter-trend).

Small traders simply cannot survive by using a Counter-Trend strategy. The problem is that she cannot survive the market run against her, while waiting for the market to turn. Small traders must use a With-Trend strategy, in general.

If you, as a small trader, must use a Counter-Trend strategy, then FutureScalper offers several mechanisms, and some advice, as to how you should do it. First of all, NEVER take the market price where it is, but Bid and/or Offer outside the market, and make the market come to you. In this way, you have a higher probability of a small retracement you need to profit.

But, in general, don't bet against trend. COT may tell you, and RISK may tell you that MM's will turn the market. But they may continue in trend direction for a long way before that turn takes place. Why? By pushing in trend direction, especially downwards, they are able to create PANIC in the market place and induce players to SELL, where MM's true intentions are to BUY. Of course this allows them not only to "shake out" traders by running their stops or pushing them beyond what they're willing to tolerate in Price Adversity; but it also allows them to BUY against those sellers at the lowest possible average price.

What features can we use in FutureScalper to help us enter in Trend direction? Here's a small list:

1) Having identified the trend, use Relative Order placement to place your Limit order a couple of ticks outside the market behind the trend, and perhaps catch a retracement to get yourself in with the trend. Problem here is that often there is NO retracement, and so you can't get in. MM's don't want to give you an opportunity for a good entry, so they often won't retrace enough to allow you in. Or you can "chase?" into an open spread, with a backtick in your favor and gain commission costs through a better entry.

2) Use Virtual Limit Orders with Run Length protection so that you enter only when the counter-direction stops and price moves in trend direction. For spikes against you, this is a great approach, because it will not trigger during the spike. However, you need to know what additional vLimit conditions can be used in order to better identify the trend, such as Depth of Market (DOM) Outer Book Pressure (OBP) conditions which you will want to factor into your decision to strike.

3) Support and Resistance points are those well-known levels which just about anybody can see on the charts, where traders anticipate breakout or breakdown of price, or anticipate that price will stop rising ("resistance") or stop falling ("support"). At these points, which you manually mark up as micro-channels, you can anticipate using FutureScalper Virtual Limit BREAK-OUT and/or BREAK-DOWN triggers to give you a few ticks profit. Using BREAK modes, you are already moving "in trend direction" with your trigger, so your stops can be closer.

FutureScalper is a complex product which helps you to negotiate the sort term Scalping environment in futures contracts. There are NO hard and fast answers, and only using good judgment with Best Practices, can you hope to succeed.

Good Trading !

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Order Entry for Scalpers

First of all, there is no platform suitable for close scalping, other than FutureScalper (FS). Traders use woefully inadequate tools in an attempt to scalp futures. These traders are generally doomed to failure. What is needed in a true scalping platform? Realtime analysis, obviously, but in this article we concentrate on Order Entry features. FS ties Order Entry to Analysis in an integrated system.

Ability to strike automatically when the Bid/Ask spread is open at BEST price. This means BID+1 tic to Buy or ASK-1 tic to sell, but only if the spread size is 2 tics or more. Without this precision you can't make commission on entry, and you do not wish to pay the full retail price when entering all the time. Some instruments such as S&P 500 emini almost never offer a Bid/Ask spread, so you're doomed to pay up. For many futures contracts, a spread is available, but you can't strike manually because the opportunities are fleeting.

No market orders. Market Orders spell "loser" for Scalpers. You must retail price control with Limit orders.

Complex conditional orders. Not only is the Bid/Ask spread important in scalping, but here are some other factors commonly relevant to good entries:

1) Whether price is moving against you. FS allows you to inhibit trading until the run against you stops.

2) Striking when the DOM (Depth of Market) trend is favorable.

3) Striking when the Market Maker COT (accumulation and distribution) is favorable.

4) Being able to use Pre-Loaded Live Orders to strike, which avoids overhead of initial margin checking on order entry.

5) Ability to "chase" a run with a very fast Trailing Stop to get the most out of fast movements.

6) Obviously speed and precision are important. Orders must be entered or modified in well under 100 milliseconds.

7) Ability to manage multiple Live orders and to adjust any of them quickly and without errors. This allows incremental profit taking and adaptive Order Entry techniques, where you can react to realtime indicators which tell you whether or not your trade is favorable.

8) Ability to "chase" effectively. If buying, you want the ASK to remain stable, and the BID to drop in your favor. Then you want to go BEST BID. FS does this automatically. This buys you a part of the spread and usually pays commission on entry. When selling, you want the BID to remain stable, and the ASK to uptick in your favor so that you can go BEST ASK.

The only platform which offers these advanced features is FutureScalper. So consider subscribing today, and taking the long journey to mastery of daytrading and scalping Futures contracts.

http://FutureScalper.com

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Daytrading as a Career

With the recent collapse of the housing price bubble, coupled with the economic misery and unemployment which foreclosures will bring, there is no better time for you to consider your career in trading.

As a trader, you can generate income from a relatively small base of cash with which to operate. The key is having the right technology and training which enables you to respond to the many moves which a market makes during the day.

On each transaction, your goal is to take a modest profit, and to be correct at least 80% of the time on the opportunities which you decide to take. You will lose on some of these, of course, and keep your losses tightly controlled. But, with experience, you should be able to achieve a fairly high percentage of small wins.

During the day, these wins and losses should gradually increase your account. By the end of the day you should be able to make more than the average living wage and, depending upon the capital you have available, considerably higher than a salaried job.

It is not possible to guarantee favorable results, because each trader's activities vary greatly. However, the approach advocates relatively small risk on each transaction, as well as relatively small gains or losses.

By keeping transactions "bite-sized", we remove the high risk aversion psychology which can often result in a trader's being unable to "pull the trigger". Losses in trading can be debilitating to the trader, and can result in a profound sense of hopelessness and helplessness.

By reducing the overall risk and reward for each action we take, we can avoid the intense fear which can be involved with other strategies. The daytrader ends the day "flat", with no positions and no risk. The swing trader has overnight positions, and may wake up with some disastrous results. Knowing this, the swing trader may be unable to sleep well. However, the daytrader has no risk, and tightly controls the risk which is taken during the trading session.

With a capital base of $5,000 or so, and FutureScalper software, you can work toward your career goal. Naturally, the more capital which we have to work with, the stronger is our position as a trader. $5,000 is a realistic minimum amount for training purposes, and is just enough to deal with a single contract, or perhaps two contracts in today's trading environment.

Access to realistic Paper Trading through the software, is the key to learning before risking real money.

If you are able to access much more than this minimum base capital, then your trading approach will change, and you would be able to take advantage of cost averaging and other advanced strategies.

Being independent of the job market, and being able to set your own hours during the day are ideals which can be achieved through hard work and training.

Good Trading !